While we are not going to attempt to replicate all the vast array of information services out there - see the FAQ for some suggestions - we think there are some market numbers which are worth noting here regularly.
Market Data
Week ending 2010-06-04
The big economic news of the week, as is always the case for the first Friday of any month, is the employment report. Released early Friday morning, May had a total of 431,000 growth in employment, but nearly all of that (411,000) was due to temporary hiring by the government of workers for the Census. Private sector employment grew by 41,000 jobs, which is disappointingly small and the unemployment rate barely moved at 9.7%, the same rate as for the first three months of 2010, with 15 million unemployed persons. The long-term unemployed, those unemployed for more than 27 weeks, was unchanged at 6.8 million persons.
The market, having had a huge and very broad rally on Wednesday, lost all of that and then some in response to the employment numbers on Friday. For the week, the Dow was down a total of 327 or 3.19%.
Large Cap US:
DJIA: 9931.97 (down 327 on the week)
SP500: 1064.88 (down 38.18 or 3.46% for the week)
Small Cap US:
IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF): $63.56 (down 5.3% for the week -- Friday hurt small-caps much worse than it hurt large-caps)
30-yr fixed mortgage rate: 4.79% (Freddie Mac PMMS)
15-yr fixed mortgage rate: 4.20% (down from 4.24%) (Freddie Mac PMMS)
Treasury rates: 05/28/10 1mo: 0.12; 3mo: 0.14; 6mo: 0.22; 1yr: 0.34; 2yr: 0.72; 3yr: 1.17; 5yr: 1.98; 7yr: 2.65; 10yr: 3.20; 20yr: 3.95; 30yr: 4.13%
* Treasury rates are down some from last week, almost all of the moves taking place on Friday. Note that the 5 year rate is now below 2% and the 20yr rate is below 4%. There was hardly any movement at the short end, as those rates are awfully awfully low already, and at the longer end, these are still very low rates to lock in for the long-term. One can easily do better than all those up to the 2yr or 3yr bonds via online savings accounts such as ING Direct, HSBC or Ally Bank -- all with FDIC insurance.
Treasury real rates (based on TIPs): 5yr: 0.32%; 7yr: 0.75%; 10yr: 1.26%; 20yr: 1.68%; 30yr: 1.77%
AAA Corporates: no data available at this time
AAA Municipals: 5yr: 1.92%; 10yr: 3.15%; 20yr: 4.89%
Unemployment (May 2010): 9.7% (Down from 9.9% in April) (See note above)
CPI-U: declined 0.1% in April, but increased 2.2% in 12 months. (reported 5/19/10)
Week (Month) Ending 2010-05-28
Large Cap US:
DJIA: 10136 (up 19.2% from one year ago), divs. not included
SP500: 1089.41 (up 20.1% from one year ago), divs. not included
* Note that the last couple of days of May and first couple of days of Jun 2009 the markets went up a lot - more than 5%. And by the end of Jun 2009, had fallen back to where they'd been at the end of May 2009. This volatility will be reflected in some big moves in the 1-yr numbers through the upcoming month of June as the beginning of the period rolls through that volatility. Of course, this past May has been even more volatile, mostly on the downside. During May, the Dow went from an early high of 11177 midday on May 3 to an intraday low of 9774 on May 25, and for the month on the whole, was down around 10%.
Small Cap US:
IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF): $66.25 (1 yr total return: 33.7%)
30-yr fixed mortgage rate: 4.78% (down from 4.84%) (Freddie Mac PMMS)
15-yr fixed mortgage rate: 4.21% (down from 4.24%) (Freddie Mac PMMS)
Treasury rates: 05/28/10 1mo: 0.15; 3mo: 0.16; 6mo: 0.22; 1yr: 0.34; 2yr: 0.76; 3yr: 1.26; 5yr: 2.10; 7yr: 2.75; 10yr: 3.31; 20yr: 4.05; 30yr: 4.22%
* Treasury rates are up a little tiny bit, but basically unchanged - these are still very low rates to lock in for the long-term - and extremely low rates for short-term lending. One can easily do better than all those up to the 2yr or 3yr bonds via online savings accounts such as ING Direct, HSBC or Ally Bank -- all with FDIC insurance.
Treasury real rates (based on TIPs): 5yr: 0.41%; 7yr: 0.81%; 10yr: 1.32%; 20yr: 1.74%; 30yr: 1.83%
* TIPs reflect very low inflation expectations for a good while -- the 5yr TIP yields 0.41% while the 5yr regular treasury note yields 2.1%. If inflation runs at any more than 1.6%, the TIP wins. If inflation heats up to the longer-run average of a few percent, that treasury bond won't be looking very good at all.
AAA Corporates: no data available at this time
AAA Municipals: 5yr: 1.91%; 10yr: 3.21%; 20yr: 4.59%
Unemployment (April 2010): 9.9% (up from 9.7% in March) (May won't be reported until the end of this week)
CPI-U: declined 0.1% in April, but increased 2.2% in 12 months. (reported 5/19/10)
Week ending 2010-05-21
Okay, well, we're not exactly weekly here. And what a couple of weeks to skip! Before we get to this week's numbers, we'll note that during the missing two weeks, we had the crazy market day on Thurs, May 6. And then the European bailout of Greece. And now, the Senate's passed their version of the Dodd Financial Reform mega-bill.
On a side note, we'll point out that we were out of town on May 6. And it's not the first time crazy, dramatic things happened while David's been away. Remember the implosion of Long Term Capital Management in 1998? Yeah, David was away that week, too. Apparently the health of the world's financial markets, unbeknownst to to those markets and the world itself, sits upon David's shoulders. Sorry 'bout that. Now onto this week:
Large Cap US:
DJIA: 10193 (down from 11009 three weeks ago and up 22.93% from one year ago), divs. not included
SP500: 1087.69 (down from 1187 three weeks ago and up 22.44% from one year ago), divs. not included
Small Cap US:
IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF): $65.07 (down from $71.65 three weeks ago and 1 yr total return: 37.86%)
30-yr fixed mortgage rate: 4.84% (Freddie Mac PMMS)
15-yr fixed mortgage rate: 4.24% (Freddie Mac PMMS)
Treasury rates: 3mo: 0.17%; 1yr: 0.35%; 2yr: 0.76%; 5yr: 2.02%; 10yr: 3.20%; 30yr: 4.07% (big rallies in treasuries in these three weeks - flight to safety - away from stocks, Euros, etc)
Treasury real rates (based on TIPs): 5yr: 0.41%; 10yr: 1.33%; 20yr: 1.79%; 30yr: 1.79% (TIPs haven't moved much - yields are a touch higher on recent news reports of lower than expected inflation. )
AAA Corporates: 5yr: 2.97%; 10yr: 3.60%; 20yr: 4.94%
AAA Municipals: 5yr: 1.82%; 10yr: 3.13%; 20yr: 4.76% (Note that munis are paying higher yields than Treasries.)
Unemployment (April 2010): 9.9% (up from 9.7% in March)
CPI-U: declined 0.1% in April, but increased 2.2% in 12 months. (reported 5/19/10)
Week ending 2010-04-30
DJIA: 11009 (up 30.7% from 8426 one year ago), divs. not included
SP500: 1187 (up 30.9% from 907 one year ago), divs. not included
IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF): $71.65 (1 yr total return: 52.6%)
30-yr fixed mortgage rate: 5.06% (Freddie Mac PMMS)
15-yr fixed mortgage rate: 4.39% (Freddie Mac PMMS)
Treasury rates: 3mo: 0.16%; 1yr: 0.41%; 2yr: 0.97%; 5yr: 2.43%; 10yr: 3.69%; 30yr: 4.53%
Treasury real rates (based on TIPs): 5yr: 0.42%; 10yr: 1.29%; 20yr: 1.68%; 30yr: 1.85%
AAA Corporates: 5yr: 2.84%; 10yr: 3.57%; 20yr: 4.91%
Unemployment (March 2010): 9.7%
Notes:
Greek credit crisis expands. Estimates include $193billion of exposure of Eurpean banks to Greek debt, while EU leaders argue about $61billion bailout. Meanwhile, Portugal, Spain, Ireland have been downgraded and may represent additional massive exposure.
Ongoing SEC charges against Goldman Sachs and further revelations about how they marketed certain synthetic CDOs have continued to shake up the equity markets. GS down 9.4% today, down more than 21% since charges were filed on Apr 16.
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